Forecasting Munitions
Many years ago, one of the sergeants approached me and told me that it was the end of the month, and it was that time again. I gave him a puzzled look and inquired what he meant by his statement. He showed me that he needed to move munitions into the next available timeframe at the end of the month before they locked out. We have to forecast our ammunition, he stated.
Well, that was not the correct answer back then. But even now, forecasting ammunition is often a concept not familiar to individuals that should be intimately familiar with munitions sustainment. First, let’s start with the available definition for a forecast from the Army Munitions Requirements, Prioritization, and Authorizations Management Policy:
“The method a unit or organization uses to communicate their monthly requirements for munitions. Forecasts are expressed by Department of Defense Identification Code (DODIC), quantity, and location. Forecasts are an operational function and a subset of the organization’s overall munitions requirement. Requirements that cannot be forecasted in accordance with the forecasting timeline in chapter 2 [Total Munitions Requirements] are unforecasted requirements.”
Forecasting Munitions
Army Regulation 5-13 provides valuable knowledge on forecasting munitions. One is that accurate forecasts are a critical component of munitions requirements. The regulation states that
“forecasts identify the what, when, where and the quantity of munitions required to be requested and consumed by the unit.”
A key concept of developing forecasts is that munitions managers use training strategies, current training plans, exercise events, and scheduled ranges to identify the type and quantity of munitions required to be available to conduct training. Forecasts are developed, with exceptions such as emergency requests, for the following munitions accounts:
Training.
New Equipment Training
Test
Operational Loads
The forecasts use data such as the training event, DODIC, Quantity Required Per Training Event/Month, and the supporting Ammunition Supply Activity. The forecast must be done before lockout periods. The lockout period allows munitions materiel managers sufficient time to conduct supply analysis, configure shipments, schedule transportation, and transport munitions to the respective ammunition supply activity. Lockout periods are determined by U.S. Army Materiel Command for the continental United States (CONUS) ammunition supply activities and the Army Service Component Commands (ASCCs) at Outside Continental U.S. (OCONUS) ammunition supply activities.
Current lockout period:
CONUS ammunition supply activities: 90 days (current month, plus next two months).
OCONUS: varies for each OCONUS ASCC.
Lockouts occur at the end of the last day of the month and remain locked during the lockout period listed above.
Unforecasted Munitions
Units that need ammunition and have not forecasted appropriately must submit an unforecasted request (UFR), or some commands call it an unforecasted ammunition request (UAR). Depending on the request, it may burden the logistics supply chain, including increased labor and transportation costs.
Installation munitions materiel managers are responsible for choosing one of the two options when filling an unforecasted request.
The unforecasted request will be supported from the current supply.
The requesting ammunition supply activity must request the shipment of the munitions from either another ammunition supply activity or a munitions depot.
Units submitting unforecasted requests are responsible (when the request must be supported outside of the current supply) for the cost of the additional depot labor to process and prepare the shipment and the cost of premium transportation. That is why the first Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) in the unit’s Chain of Command is usually required to sign the request.
Conclusion
Forecasting ammunition is a critical component of munitions requirements. The forecasting process is to identify what, when, where and the quantity of munitions required to be requested and consumed by the unit. Munition sustainers must not just “front load” the forecasts to receive more munitions than events require. They must be able to understand how training strategies work for warfighters. Know the current training plans for echelons above and below themselves. Realize the key exercise events for command and any conflicts with scheduled ranges. Planning for munitions is much like Army planning, the art and science of understanding a situation, envisioning a desired future, and laying out effective ways of bringing about that future.
Reference
Army Regulation 5-13, Army Munitions Requirements, Prioritization, and Authorizations Management Policy, https://armypubs.army.mil/ProductMaps/PubForm/Details.aspx?PUB_ID=1020692